The recent landmark power shift in Aso Rock is fast changing the fortunes of some powerful men  who held sway when President Umaru Musa Yar’adua was around. Weekly Trust writes on the changing fortunes of these erstwhile powerful men.

Until last Wednesday, they were viewed in Aso Rock Presidential Villa as the backbone  of Yar’adua’s administration. With the substantial influence they wielded as members of ailing President Umaru Musa Yar’adua’s kitchen cabinet, the former Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Mike Aondoakaa; the Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources, Abba Sayyadi Ruma; the Chief Economic Adviser to the president, Tanimu Yakubu Kurfi, and other Yar’adua protégés moved about in the Presidential Villa with intimidating confidence.

It was usual for them to be seen chatting hilariously together along the corridor between the Council Chambers and the president’s office, or sometimes dishing out instructions to fellow ministers and other presidential aides who were not members of the hitherto powerful kitchen cabinet.

Because of their nearly unfettered access to the office and residence of their principal, both located within the Villa, their other colleagues, Weekly Trust gathered, usually sought the assistance of the Yar’adua protégés to get advance presidential approval for their memos before such memos were eventually tabled at the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meetings for ratification.

However, the ascendancy of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to power as Acting President, courtesy of last Tuesday’s resolutions of both arms of the National Assembly, seems to have curtailed the influence of the die-hard Yar’adua loyalists who had earlier insisted that President Yar’adua who has been receiving medical treatment in Saudi Arabia since last November should not transfer power to Jonathan as required by Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution.

In a swift move apparently aimed at consolidating his hold on power after accepting National Assembly’s resolutions, Jonathan had on Wednesday effected a minor cabinet reshuffle that saw the removal of Aondoakaa who is the arrowhead of the Yar’adua-must-not-hand-over campaign from the prestigious Justice Ministry to the Ministry of Special Duties which civil servants sarcastically call “siddon-look” ministry.

Even before Aondoakaa’s demotion, the Yar’adua ‘boys’ had sensed trouble in the air since Tuesday when Jonathan assumed power as Acting President. By Wednesday morning when they appeared at the Presidential Villa for the weekly FEC meeting, Aondoakaa, Tanimu, Ruma and their cohorts didn’t come across as people who had a sound sleep the previous night. Apparently ruing their loss in the power game at the Villa, they shed their seeming toga of arrogance and wore long faces.

If they were jittery before the FEC meeting, the announcement of Aondoakaa’s demotion by Jonathan seemed to have sent further jitters down their spines. When the meeting ended at about 6pm, they emerged with gloomier faces having probably realised that their days in the cabinet where they hitherto called the shots are apparently numbered.

The humiliating loss of power and influence seems to have forced the Yar’adua “boys” into their cocoon. Attempts made yesterday by Weekly Trust to get Ruma to comment on the unfolding power game in the country were rebuffed by the agric minister. The once vociferous minister insisted that he would neither speak on Yar’adua nor Jonathan.

It would also seem that the loss of power has forced Aondoakaa to eat humble pie. The former justice minister who had in his combative characteristics slandered the Minister of Information and Communications, Professor Dora Akunyili over her earlier demand that Yar’adua be compelled to transfer power to Jonathan in view of his infirmity wrote a letter of apology to her  last Thursday.

Major cabinet shake-up imminent

In view of their earlier stiff opposition to the transfer of power to Acting President Jonathan, it seems most unlikely that he would be able to work with Aondoakaa and his cohorts for too long. Unconfirmed reports have it that but for the intervention of the Senate President, David Mark and some other eminent Nigerians, the former Attorney-General would have been sacked by Jonathan rather than being redeployed. Weekly Trust gathered that those who pleaded with the acting president to spare Aondoakaa for now had reasoned that it was too early for Jonathan to deal squarely with the intransigent Yar’adua protégés.

With the growing indications that Yar’adua may not be fit enough to continue in office when he eventually returns, Jonathan may soon make the final push and effect a major cabinet reshuffle to oust Aondoakaa and his colleagues. Aondoakaa will obviously get the boot for employing several legal tricks aimed at preventing Jonathan from becoming Acting President. Apart from that, the controversial minister was also said to have mishandled the justice ministry while he was there.

For Ruma, his eventual ouster from the cabinet will tantamount to double jeopardy. The agriculture minister who would have become more vulnerable would thence have to face political torments from Governor Ibrahim Shema of his home state, Katsina. With Yar’adua’s backing, Ruma and other notable Katsina politicians had been waging debilitating political war on Shema with a view to wrestling the governorship seat from him in 2011. It is obvious that Shema will spare no effort to neutralise Ruma after he might have been sacked by Jonathan.

Also, Tanimu is obviously on his way out of the cabinet. If he is eventually ousted, he is likely to face the same fate as Ruma. Other likely casualties in the event of a major cabinet shake-up by Jonathan include the Minister of State for Information, Alhaji Ikra Bilbis; the Minister of Works, Alhaji Hassan Lawal; the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Adamu Aliero; the Minister of Petroleum, Dr Rilwanu Lukman; the Minister of State for Education, Hajiya Aishatu Dukku; Foreign Affairs Minister, Ojo Maduekwe; the Minister of Power, Lanre Babalola and the Minister of Aviation, among other Yar’adua “boys”.  Apart from being staunch Yar’adua loyalists, they are also said to have been blacklisted by Jonathan for various offences.

Most likely, Jonathan will retain some ministers after the imminent cabinet shake-up. Akunyili who openly canvassed for the transfer of power to him, observers say, will be number one on the list. The Special Adviser on Media and Publicity to the president, Mr Olusegun Adeniyi, a reliable Presidency source said, is also likely to be retained by Jonathan. The source told Weekly Trust that the “Acting President is said to be pleased with Adeniyi’s conduct and the professional way he has been handling the Presidency’s media matters.”

Again, the interesting questions that readily arise from Jonathan’s recent assumption of power as acting president is: what is the current political status of Hajiya Turai Yar’adua? Is she still the Nigerian First Lady with Jonathan as acting president? Or is Acting President Jonathan’s wife, Patience, now the Acting First Lady? The questions seem quite relevant as the office of the First Lady has come to be accepted as part of the nation’s political configuration even though it is not constitutionally recognised. It will certainly be interesting to Nigerians to see how the logjam is resolved in the coming days when a function that the First Lady must attend crops up.

Apart from the threat of possible disloyalty by pro-Yar’adua ministers, political pundits say Jonathan may also be angling to reshuffle the FEC with a view to ditching Yar’adua and seizing full presidential powers. The game plan, they say, is that after bringing his loyalists on board the FEC, Jonathan will then get the council to declare Yar’adua incapacitated and invoke Section 144 of the 1999 Constitution, which requires the Senate to set up a medical panel to examine the health of the president once he has been pronounced medically unfit by FEC.

If indeed Jonathan decides to play out this scenario, the probability of accomplishing his mission seems high. For one, the true health status of Yar’adua which his family and associates alike have kept a top secret would be revealed, as he would be forced to make himself available for medical examination by the panel that may be established by the Senate. If he refuses to make himself available for examination, the Senate may pursue the impeachment option.

The president’s family has been shielding him from the public since his admission into the Saudi hospital. Governors, members of the House of Representatives and other eminent Nigerians who went to Saudi Arabia to see the president were allegedly prevented from seeing him. Indications from recent political developments in the country are that the political elite may have privileged information that the president may not be medically fit enough to continue in office if he survives his current illness.

Apart from Aondoakaa and his clique who remain adamant, all other stakeholders in the country seem to have agreed that the nation should move on without Yar’adua. The sudden change of heart by the members of the House of Representatives who abandoned their earlier resistance and passed a resolution making Jonathan Acting President and the speed with which the National Assembly leadership went to congratulate him a day after their resolution, observers say, indicate that they might know what ordinary Nigerians do not currently know about Yar’adua’s health.

As the political pressure group led by the former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, noted on Thursday, the National Assembly resolutions making Jonathan Acting President has not totally averted the constitutional crisis currently facing the nation. How the crisis is finally resolved seems to depend on Acting President Jonathan.